:: XP era ends? ::

A heap buffer overflow exists in QuickTime's handling of PICT images. Opening a maliciously crafted PICT image file may lead to an unexpected application termination or arbitrary code execution

By Atif Latif

The Windows XP era ends June 30 and soon hardware vendors will be shipping you all Vista all the time (in most cases). The save XP effort failed. The whining should cease. And now it's time for Vista to sink or swim.

A good overview of where Windows XP will stand with PC manufacturers. It is highlighted in a report from Evans Data noting that 92 percent of developers are ignoring Vista. Coupling these two items together and you come to one conclusion: Folks are skeptical about Vista, but a lot of that skepticism is because XP is still lingering.

If you're a Vista complainer you have two options from here:

Move away from Windows completely (users try a new OS and developers jump ship).

Or shut up and go with Vista.

My hunch is most folks will do that latter. I would love to believe that Microsoft's Vista miscues would result in a mass exodus, but I doubt that will happen. I also wonder why people pay those ridiculous property taxes.

I digress. Once consumers no longer have the XP option they'll fall in line with Vista. Sure some percentage will go Mac, but if you didn't jump yet after a gazillion brilliant Apple ads knocking Vista you probably would not. And the developer worries: Developers will fall in line too.

Only eight percent of North American software developers are currently writing applications to run on Microsoft's Vista operating system, while half are still writing programs for XP, North American Development Survey. These same developers forecast a fragmented Windows market in 2009 with only 24 percent expecting to target Vista and 29% expecting to continue with XP.

Developers have taken a wait and see approach to Vista, the new operating system has had more than its share of problems and the desire to move from XP on the Windows platform is still lagging that coupled with interest in alternative operating systems is suppressing development activity and that in turn will further erode Vista's acceptance.





Post-Jobs world...

Before all of you start sending nastygrams my way about how tasteless and premature this blog post is, let me just say upfront I agonized about whether or not it should even be written in the first place, and my industry colleagues I consulted about it told me that the topic, while uncomfortable, is fair game.

I'm not going to theorize on whether or not Jobs' pancreatic cancer has returned, is having a prolonged recovery from his Whipple procedure, or whether Apple is hiding the real truth of the situation, as many have suggested. Rather, I think some consideration should be taken as to whether or not Apple has formed an effective transition strategy, and has adequately prepared for the worst case scenario. What does Apple look like without Jobs?

Companies that are centered around iconic founders and which cannot form effective long-term transition and mission strategies after they depart are doomed to suffer serious consequences. Case in point from 1985 to 1987, Jobs lived out his exile at NeXT and Pixar, only to return as the company's savior after over a decade of being completely rudderless and on the brink of oblivion.

The industry is littered with examples of poor transition management. Microsoft itself seemed to have hit a major bump in the road in vision and mission when Bill Gates decided to spend more time on his personal projects rather than be involved in day to day matters of the company a road bump that it seems to still not have recovered from given the train wreck.

The tech industry isn't the only one to be affected by founder exodus transition mismanagement syndrome. Harley-Davidson went through years of deterioration and shipping poor products after being purchased by AMF in 1969 when the original founders left and only rebounded when 13 employees made a concerted effort to save the company and buy it back in 1981. It could also be said after Walt died in 1966, Disney went through an extremely difficult period in its core animated film business, for as much as two decades until Eisner revitalized the company.

If Jobs were to abdicate, would Apple indeed become rudderless again? Or has he installed a church of his own followers that would continue on in the same tradition and ideology? Is there a "Book of Jobs" somewhere in a pile of Word for Mac files or PDFs that contain the ideological canon of what comprises the essence of Apple? Is enough institutional knowledge and Jobs's teachings documented and retained among the management staff?

Certainly, a number of the "inmates" that formed the NeXT "asylum" that reconstructed the company after the long decline during the Sculley, Spindler and Amelio years still remain, but some key folks are missing notably Avie Tevanian, Job's long time #2 and head of software engineering, who went off to join the board of Tellme Networks in 2006. Tim Cook, a former career IBMer, briefly filled the role of CEO when Jobs had his cancer treatment in 2004, but whether he has the institutional vision to run the company long term should Jobs have to leave Apple is a question only Jobs can answer. Only Bertrand Serlet, who succeeded Avie Tevanian as Chief of Software Engineering, and Sina Tamaddon are the two remaining legacy NeXTers serving as senior company officers. Whether either of these two they have the exact combination of talents to be CEO material of a multi-billion dollar corporation and the executors of Job's legacy is uncertain.

Leadership isn't the only thing that might have to change if Jobs leaves Apple or God forbid this world. Failure to adapt to market realities and holding Job's principles up on a pedestal could cause the company serious problems as well. It's no secret that what is holding Apple back from finally cutting the cord from its hardware and allowing mass-licensing of OS X on generic X86 hardware is Jobs himself. Getting iPhone out to other competing carriers besides AT&T may also be possible after Jobs and his tradition of proprietary exclusiveness becomes a thing of the past. And while it pains me to say it, despite all Jobs has meant for the company in terms of its establishing market vision and external sex appeal his unique brand of slick hucksterism that comprises its current success formula, leaving these traditions behind may be the only way Apple will ever realize the maximum of its true potential.

Who do you feel and what principles should guide a post-Jobs Apple? Talk Back and let me know.